International Spot Gold Pyramid Trading Act
First, what is the pyramid Jiancang law
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Pyramid buy law is the world’s more popular Jiancang Cartier love bracelet replica operation law, whether it is Europe and the United States investment guru, or general **Replica Cartier Love Ring** investment funds, are using the “pyramid” buy method operation. The characteristics of the pyramid buying method are to keep the average price of the purchased investment varieties at the lowest price.
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The idea should pay attention to the question:
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This is a long-term investment philosophy, for example, from the long term gold long-term trend to the better, if the price of gold fell to the best way to build the pyramid, that is, the lower the price, the greater the number of Jiancang. When the gold back to the normal track, the natural profit.
Second, how to use the pyramid law to invest in gold
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1, the classification of the recommendations by investors:
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For different conditions of investors we take the investment advice is also different, then we have the amount of money owned by investors to grading, roughly divided into three: A-10 million the following B-10 million to 500,000 C-50 or more Note: The above amount is 30% of the home idle funds)
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2, the distribution of gold prices area
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According to historical data in recent years, single-year gold volatility is about 20% -40%, this year’s high and low range range fluctuation is about 41%, the highest 1032, the lowest 680, the middle price of 850 or so, according to this fluctuation We designed the dichotomy and the third division to divide the price area:
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1) Dichotomy: Dichotomy is the price is divided into two intervals, that is, 850 or more, and 850 below.
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2) three-point method:**Fake Cartier Juste Un Clou Ring** three-point method is based on the existing price fluctuation range is divided into three intervals, that is, 850 below, 780 and below 850.
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3, how to use the dichotomy and three points on the A, B, C and customers Cartier love ring replica through the warehouse recommended?
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1) A-level customers: dichotomy
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A-level customers due to the available funds are relatively limited, such as sub-Jiancang is slightly messy, if more than a different price Jiancang is the final average cost of Jiancao must say that the high is not high, that is not low, we can not achieve the results, Dichotomy is more appropriate, according to the pyramid Jiancang principle, the lower the price to buy more, the low risk of investment in the region to buy a large number of areas into the profit margin after the chip. Namely: 850% of the following regional investment, more than 850% of the region 40%
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Reason:
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Below 850 is the low risk value area, the lower the price the smaller the risk factor, because the gold production costs determine the price limit of gold, gold providers, basically not lower than the cost of its gold mining costs to sell Out of gold production.
So, how much is the cost of gold production?
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According to the 2008 statistics, HSBC Bank in New York metal analyst JamesSteel said the current basic production price of gold in 700 US dollars per ounce or so, and a well-known foreign investment bank called ADAIR managers said the marginal cost of rising, the current cost of gold Close to $ 800. That is, the production price of gold can not be expressed with an accurate figure, because different countries, different production units of their production costs will be different, we can only find the cost range, about 700-800 dollars, also That 850 below the provider no obvious profit at all, the following 700 investors may be less than the cost of mining gold investment products, so we judged to be low risk areas.
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Operation Description:
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The first step, according to the market price to determine what market is now in the region, such as the current market price of about 740 US dollars near the purchase amount should be about 60% or so, after the purchase hold, until the price rose above 850 **Cheap Amulette de Cartier Ring** after the basic Can confirm that gold has returned to the way up, and 60% of the bottom warehouse has been profitable for investors, the correct judgment and profit of the book will be the next step for investors to enter the second step to bring confidence.
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The second step, an additional 40% of the remaining investment, fill the chips. At this point the market has been gradually out of the bottom of the market performance rose up or less, while the jiacang operation although the cost of a slight increase, but because of reasonable Cartier nail bracelet replica allocation of chips still makes the average cost is relatively low, more importantly, Proving the correctness of the following trends.
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2) B and C customers take a three-point method:
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B and C-class customers due to more funds, it can be divided into three completed Jiancang, investors in the past to operate more to the top-heavy, low when the firm is not determined to buy a little bit exploratory, high after regret to buy cheap Was less, bullish Masukura, diluted and found that the low chips almost did not play any role in the typical inverted pyramid buying method.
Operation Description:
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First, we divide it into three regions:
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780 The following is the lower valuation area
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780-850 for a reasonable valuation area
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850 or more for the value of the region
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We have just defined in the dichotomy method, according to the cost of production to define the gold, the operation is divided into three steps: (Here we use the hypothesis method)
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The first step, if the price of gold at 850 yuan should be involved in the following 35%
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The second step: If you find it into the value of less than 780 underestimated the region for the opportunity to re-jiacang, should be added 45% of the cost of timely increase.
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The third step: when the market rose to 850 or more with the dichotomy of the second step to fill the chips, holding up to rise.
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Why in turn the first step of the dichotomy split into two steps? Because we found that the price of investment products tend to have these laws, most of the time they are running low in the area of reasonable valuation, but also in a short period of time, due to investors irrational investment, the market price will run in the low Under the reasonable area to form a low value of the region.
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3) how to do the scientific and rational rationality of the proportion of Jiancang?
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In the Western investment community, there is a common formula for capital management as follows
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F = ((K + 1) P-1)) / K
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F – Configure the position ratio
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P-Investor Profit Probability
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K-odds, expected earnings / expected loss.
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This formula is very **Fake Cartier Ring** famous, called Kelly formula. It is said that Buffett also use this formula to allocate funds.
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Now, to households per household idle assets of 200,000 yuan in kind to invest in gold, to see how the allocation of funds.
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Before the configuration, we have reason to determine the variables of the formula.
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1, odds
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We calculate the profit and loss on the upper and lower rails of the current gold price trend in the Bollinger Bands (parameters: 50, 2.5). On the track: 961 US dollars / ounce, the next track: 671 US dollars / ounce. Gold is now priced at $ 735 / ounce, plus **Knockoff Cartier Nail Ring**customer purchase cost of 14 yuan / gram ($ 64 / ounce), then K = (961-733) / (733 +64-671) = 1.78
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2, profit probability
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Generally based on our experience, the price in the Bollinger Belt operating probability of more than 95%. For the sake of prudence, we assume that the customer is profitable with a probability of 60%. P = 60%
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3, the proportion of customers Jiancang |